Bomber Beazley's final mission

To the dispassionate observer, it was painfully obvious what was occurring. The "Bomber" was still bravely soldiering on, carrying what remained of his loyal crew into dangerous missions through the flak alley of question time to deliver their payload against the Liberal Empire.

But the Bomber was getting older, and more battle scarred with every run. The damage was becoming harder and harder to repair, and the ground crew back at base, ever riven by factional discord, were eagerly eyeing off newer, fresher alternatives to their aging Bomber Mk 1.

The end came when the Bomber, flying on 3 engines and struggling for altitude, lost his Rudd(er). The crew promptly bailed out, and the Bomber, predictably, went down in flames, culminating in a spectactular, and yet, unsurprising explosion.

And so the Labor Party will take to the air again, this time in a plane piloted by Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard. While some pundits are claiming they represent generational change, this is not a fairytale wedding for the ALP, nor is it a match made in heaven.

Unlike Howard and Costello, who've been flying together for over a decade, Rudd and Gillard are the two pilots thrown together because all the others were taken. And they face the hardest task imaginable - somehow getting the colossal bulk of the Labor Party back into the air, where it can match the Liberals in a political dogfight.

Ok, that's enough aerial metaphors for the moment.

Seriously, a blind man could have seen this coming. In the aftermath of Latham's public hara-kiri, Rudd and Gillard both backed down from challenging Beazley. Neither of them had the votes, and the ALP was unlikely to take another risky punt on untried talent, given that the last horse they backed started strong and then broke his leg rounding the final turn, letting the seasoned Howard stayer fly past on the inside rail.

So, they waited. But Rudd said at the time, cribbing lines from Napoleon Bonaparte (there's a man who knew how to get the most out of division and egos in his subordinates), that he had a Field Marshal's baton in his knapsack, but now was not the time to bring it out. Essentially, Beazley could get the promotion, but the first defeat and Rudd's hand would be reaching for his bag, scrabbling for purchase on the shiny veneer of the rod of command.

And so, with what seems an eternity of Beazley saying a lot, and yet not much at all, doing a great deal and accomplishing very little, he's finally been put out to pasture.

The biggest problem facing Rudd and Gillard though, isn't so much the Liberals, as it is the Labor Party. John Howard, for example, rules his caucus with 85% of Coalition MP's on a bad day, and 99% on a good day. (Costello abstained.) Rudd and Gillard have snuck in with about 60% of the vote, and a good chunk of that was borrowed from the NSW Right, surely the first time that collection of old right-wing time servers and union bosses has ever voted for a educated, articulate, bespectacled centrist and (heaven forbid) a woman. The factions still dominate the ALP, and now that they've impaled Rudd and Gillard on the thorny throne of ALP leader, they will be expecting great results.

If Rudd and Gillard can somehow pull off a miracle win come next year, all will be forgiven. The factional bloodletting will be forgotten, Howard will shuffle off into retirement having gone a bridge too far, and we'll be treated to the spectacle of Peter Costello, Tony Abbott and Brendan Nelson squablling for the spoils of opposition.

But this is a Labor party machine weighed down with the millstones of repealing workplace relations, a Liberal government with a record for economic excellence, and an inexperienced team going up against the most experienced political campaigner since Robert Menzies.
Moreover, Labor struggles to find it's footing, as it slips and slides on factional blood, that haemmorhages daily from gaping wounds that no amount of political surgery can permanently close.

A political win in 2007 will provide a bandaid solution. But it will take a great deal more surgery to fix the incessant internal bloodletting that threatens to drain Labor dry.

And for my money, I don't think Rudd and Gillard are up to it.